Jane left earlier today to meet some friends in Matagalpa. Since I?m on intestinally-imposed house arrest, I?m staying in the house of Susan Bursey. She is a Texan by birth who has lived and worked in Central America for decades, and she and her son John have just sold Nicaragua?s largest Internet provider (which they founded) to foreign investors.
Susan and I spent the evening watching the inauguration ceremonies of Daniel Ortega, the new president of Nicaragua. Ortega was a leader of the Sandinista revolution that deposed the Somoza dictatorship in 1979, and then became a bit of a strongman himself during the ill-fated Contra war in the 1980s. He has been a background figure in Nicaraguan politics since the surprise victory of President Violetta Chamorro in 1990.
During the campaign, Ortega claimed to have changed ? he was a moderate: no longer hostile to foreign investment and no longer interested in sudden, drastic changes to the country?s economic system. But tonight?s inauguration raised doubts. Just the list of invited guests raises eyebrows ? prominent on the rostrum were Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Evo Morales of Bolivia, and a representative of Castro?s regime in Cuba. The United States was notably absent. Clearly the new Nicaraguan government has cast its lot with the recently-formed, extreme leftist (and generally anti-US) bloc of Latin American countries led by Chavez.
The inauguration itself started hours late, and was somewhat disorganized. There was a moment of confusion when Ortega suddenly announced that he would not speak at the gathering of foreign dignitaries, and instead would proceed directly to the Plaza Juan Paul, where crowds of Nicaraguans had gathered. All of the TV stations promptly cut to file footage ? presumably while they rushed to prepare their camera crews at the second venue.
Stylistically, the ceremonies seemed to borrow a bit from Germany in the 30?s and Argentina in the 40?s. They featured goose-stepping soldiers, copious waving Sandinista flags, and the militaristic-sounding Sandinista anthem. They also featured a glowing introductory speech from the first lady about how her husband would be the salvation of Nicaragua, and a great deal of nationalistic rhetoric about ??Nicaragua Libre!,? a revolutionary term that has seen little use during recent administrations. Chavez took the platform to proclaim undying friendship between Venezuela and Nicaragua, and in his speech Ortega repeatedly praised his leftist counterparts elsewhere in Latin America.
With regard to policy, the most notable were his intent to align the country with Venezuela?s free trade zone (most likely rather than the US-propsed CAFTA) and his intention to develop ?a plan? to deal with the privatized (and admittedly dysfunctional) electrical infrastructure. It seems that nationalization may be in the works.
The fact that Ortega had managed to win the presidency with barely 35% of the popular vote was not mentioned, and post-speech commentary centered mostly on the fact that corrupt former president Alberto Aleman (who is supposedly under house arrest) had attended the ceremony. There was little discussion of specific policy aspects of Ortega?s address ? possibly because TV stations fear retaliation if they take too critical a stance.
As she watched the coverage, Susan shook her head. The timing of the sale of her business was a coincidence, but she seemed glad she had done it. She predicts a 25% drop in real estate prices tomorrow as investors get cold feet about land holdings in Nicaragua (after all, when they took power in the 80s, the Sandinistas initiated a massive program of land redistribution.) While foreign investment in Nicaragua sometimes highlights the inequities present in society, it also brings millions of desperately-needed dollars and thousands of jobs into the economy. If Ortega scares away these investors, it seems likely that the country?s poor will suffer the most.